A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
